The hottest methanol still needs to be faced ratio

Methanol: even if the high position still needs to be faced rationally

methanol: even if the high position still needs to be faced rationally

December 5, 2018

today, ma901 closed at 2477 yuan/ton, up 1 point, up 169 points from yesterday's close. Today, the material cop has high pH tolerance and performs Jedi anti kill. The main reason is mainly focused on the position. At present, ma9 as an interior part 01 has entered December, but there is still no sign of shifting positions and changing months in the new materials developed by the team of Washington State University. Today, although 220000 positions have been reduced during the day, the total position is still more than 980000 (490000 unilateral), which is more than twice the position of ma905, and the verification regulation line of various testing machines of Chinese coatings in pressure testing machines. Considering that the current port inventory is less than 800000 tons, and the discount volume is 80000 hands (unilateral), which is far less than the current 490000 hands (unilateral), it caused the panic departure of short sellers on the disk, causing the market to stampede upward

recently, many sets of methanol units in China, such as Datang, Jiutai, Tongmei, etc., were discontinued after being oversold at low prices; In addition, Pucheng clean, Datang Duolun and other olefin units plan to restart; Load reduction and shutdown of multiple natural gas units; After the G20, crude oil rebounded sharply, and the overall chemical atmosphere showed signs of improving

on the other hand, there are still many imported methanol, and the import is expected to exceed 750000 tons in December; The coastal inventory is still high. Affected by the early closure, 100000 tons of methanol are slowly unloaded, and some are still concentrated at the port in the later stage; Zhejiang Xingxing MTO and other devices have not been restarted; I heard that there are plans to put 800000 tons of Luxi and 500000 tons of Hengli into production in December

from the perspective of fundamentals, methanol has not seen much positive at present. Today's sharp rise is more due to the panic mentality of bears, who are worried that they will be closed by bulls in the future. However, while methanol rebounded sharply today, various bullish news also continued to ferment in the market. This makes people wonder: is it a coincidence or a premeditation? In fact, from another perspective, even if the current position is high, according to the position limit system of the exchange, the overlimit long and short positions will be gradually eliminated later. In addition, natural persons will also be forcibly flattened before entering the delivery month. During this period, if there is an irrational high rise in futures, it will give the cash participants the space for risk-free arbitrage, and the amount of final participation in delivery is still relatively limited. Therefore, short sellers need to calm down first and make their own risk planning. Instead of chaos, they might as well think about countermeasures or calmly wait for passive liquidation. However, no matter the conspiracy or the conspiracy, how turbulent the volatility of the disk is, I believe that methanol will eventually return to the trajectory of fundamentals